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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2012-02 > 1329326962


From: Christopher Carr <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] WHAT MODALS CANNOT PROVIDE
Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:29:22 -0500
References: <4F3BE891.6020209@earthlink.net>
In-Reply-To: <4F3BE891.6020209@earthlink.net>


Would there be value in re-calculating the modal based on current results? Would this take in to account results from closely-related individuals or heavily-represented surnames?


> Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:17:05 -0500
> From:
> To: ;
> Subject: [R-M222] WHAT MODALS CANNOT PROVIDE
>
> Sandy, I think you are at the heart of the matter. A clade modal is
> nothing more than the haplotypes of the majority as first discovered in
> testing. In this case the M222+ modal actually reflects the majority
> of haplotypes identified to be tied with the Ui Neil Dynasty in Ireland,
> and it has been assumed that everyone carry this haplotype descended
> through this dynasty because that seemed to be the evidence....then....
>
> We know now that this population along with the populations of Scotland
> and the rest of the Isles, Europe and beyond did suffer a severe event
> during which time there was considerable death from a variety of reasons
> including starvation and disease. The current M222 population
> descending from the survivors of that devastation carry a rather
> homogeneous haplotype which seems also very stable in regard to mutations.
>
> The question then comes back to the origin time and place of M222. If
> it actually sprouted up in some other environ other than Ireland and
> earlier than even Anatole's tentative estimate of now 0, there are apt
> to be at least a few descendants of other men who survived the
> devastation carrying that M222 snp and not aligned with the Ui Neil
> dynasty of Ireland except through SNP designation as they would have
> descended from another genetically related ancestor of Nial.
>
> Diversity in the haplotypes may indicate a lineage age due to the fact
> that the more mutations there are may indicate that the haplotype has
> had longer to mutate. The key word is May. HOWEVER diversity does
> little to indicate the age of a SNP -- only the calculated TMRCA between
> those carrying the haplotypes.
>
> Just for hypotheticals, lets speculate that the SNP occurred on the
> continent with a man time and place unknown but perhaps close but before
> the current 0 estimate based on the TMRCA between the Miligan &
> O'Doherty groups.
>
> Lets say that that man had at least one descendant years later that
> was among a tribe which migrated into Ireland and similarly produced
> sons and so on there.
>
> This man had other descendants which were not among those who went to
> Ireland but either remained in the area where the SNP was born or
> migrated to other environs either on the continent or one of the other
> Isles.
>
> Depending on how long ago the SNP actually sprouted over the at least
> 2000 years (since Anatole's estimate, and that's simply a comparison of
> mostly Irish and some Scot of the Ireland Heritage project 2010 and the
> addition of the Milligan O'Doherty comparison 2011) with approaching 80
> generations since then, if there were others carrying the SNP not in
> Ireland, they very likely could evidence different mutations than those
> who descended through the Ui Neil.
>
> All roads lead back to the SNP -- the question is as it has always been
> since identified is when did it sprout and where did it sprout? We yet
> do not know that, and may not ever learn that. As testing continues,
> however, and more Europeans test -- and frankly they are not as
> enthusiastic about this as Americans are -- there may be others out
> there who test positive for the SNP whose ancestors had nothing to do
> with Ireland or the Uii Neil. There may be lineages in Scotland or else
> where that may descend from others and not tied to the Ui Neil either;
> but because this is where the population was first found and that
> population is so robust -- incredibly robust -- it has been assumed that
> every identified M222 must be from that robust group.
>
> Well what if they aren't?
>
> All of our estimates to date have used primarily two populations to
> compare -- primarily the Irish (which despite everything flourished) and
> their neighbors the Scots with whom many indeed were related. When
> comparing all of the M222 haplotypes, The Irish data literally swamps
> every comparison made.
>
> So there are no other answers presently...this is not to say that there
> won't be in the future. Susan
>
>
> R1b1c7 Research and Links:
>
> http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/
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