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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2011-12 > 1324711042


From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Ulster
Date: Sat, 24 Dec 2011 07:17:22 -0000
References: <336ad.602570ed.3c2646d3@aol.com>
In-Reply-To: <336ad.602570ed.3c2646d3@aol.com>


Alan,

Yes, you have correctly interpreted my thinking, and I'm in the (long)
process of looking
for both supporting evidence as well as evidence that contradicts my
thinking.

As a start, if we assume that the Doughertys are indeed Cenel Conail, and
their most recent common ancestor with Cenel Eoghan lived 54 generations
back, then it is mathematically impossible for the Donegal McLaughlins to be
Cenel Eoghan. They are simply far too close to Dougherty for that. I'll put
something up in Dropbox that
lists my estimates of TMRCA's. It would be a good idea if someone were to
compare my estimates with the answers given by Doug McDonald's TMRCA
calculator. For those I've checked, his answers are all slightly smaller
than mine, but we're in the same parish, as it were.

For now,

Sandy





-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of
Sent: 23 December 2011 21:04
To:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Ulster

Sandy, thanks for your clarification, which is much appreciated. To clarify
then, your estimate is the M222 mutation occurred much closer to 40
generations but is unlikely to be higher than 50 generations?

So, the most recent common ancestor of the Cenel Eoghan and the Cenel
Conail is estimated to about 54 generations back or 1631 years before
present
(AD 380)?

If the estimated mutation of the M222 occurred closer to 40 generations
back and the common ancestor of the Cenel Eoghan and the Cenel Conail is 54

generations back, does this imply, the mutation occurred downstream either
with the Cenel Eoghan or the Cenel Conail, given the common ancestor is
estimated to be about 54 generation back? Or is there something I am
missing?

Personally, I can appreciate the time you have spent on the M222, as I have
spent years doing genealogical research on it. Happy to discuss offline.

Alan


In a message dated 23/12/2011 09:42:17 GMT Standard Time,
writes:

By way of clarification, Sandy does NOT estimate that the M222 mutation
occurred 50 generations back.

My estimate is much closer to 40 generations back, and the phrase
"...highly
unlikely to be more than 50 generations.." was used simply because of the
relatively wide confidence intervals characteristic of TMRCA estimations.

On the question of the origins of M222, I must say I'm far more optimistic
than John is about being able to narrow down the search. Think of this:

1.Jay Flatley, CEO of Illumina is M222+. His full genome has been sequenced
and placed in the public domain.
2.An anonymous participant in the 1000 genomes project identified the DF23
mutation in both his own DNA and in that of Flatley.
3.Fifteen markers have been published for the anonymous 1000 Genomes
researcher.
4.Lamont 203128 matches these 14/15 and has been tested positive for DF23.

Now I seriously doubt whether the anonymous researcher has stopped his
research. If I'm right, it means that someone is actively trying to link
DF23+ with M222+, by searching for SNP's that lie between DF23 and M222. I
know that doesn't guarantee success, but I think it provides cause for
optimism (or, at least, hope).

On the question of gaining a better understanding of M222+, I believe
everyone (including me) has been approaching the riddle in the wrong way.

Speaking for myself now (but I think a number of people have tried this),
I've spent probably close to a 50 hours carefully gathering M222+
haplotypes
and trying to establish sub-clades by grouping off-modal matches. That's
one
approach, but it hasn't exactly produced the goods.

A far better approach, I think, is to remind ourselves that DNA on its own
cannot prove anything. But it can, and does, from time to time, disprove
certain possibilities.

So.

Niall had sons Eoghan, Enda and Conail Gulban. Niall is believed to have
died around 407AD. The Daughertys are Cenel Conail. I don't think anyone
disputes this. So the Cenel Eoghan, and the Cenel Conail have a most recent
common ancestor in Niall, who lived around 350-407AD. That means the common
ancestor of the Cenel Conail and the Cenel Eoghan lived around 1631 years
bp, or 54 generations back.

I think that's a good starting point.

Sandy


-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of
Sent: 23 December 2011 06:47
To:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Ulster



In a message dated 12/22/2011 12:01:37 P.M. Central Standard Time,
writes:


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