DNA-R1B1C7-L Archives

Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2011-06 > 1309188185


From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] O'Cathain, off modal matches, 448=16
Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2011 16:23:05 +0100
References: <000001cc34b3$90b20d40$b21627c0$@com><20110627110421.38054vtpw02jlfcl@mail.eecs.umich.edu>
In-Reply-To: <20110627110421.38054vtpw02jlfcl@mail.eecs.umich.edu>


I don't quite follow, but I have simulated a whole bunch of M222-like
populations of haplotypes which I can search to check anything you like.
It's quite easy to write the code, so please feel free to request any search
you may find interesting. I haven't yet simulated 111-marker haplotypes
(waiting until I or anyone else can produce sensible mutation rates), so I
have to stick to 67-markers for now. Still, it should shed light on any
theory you may have. Let me know if you need the mutation rates I've used in
order to specify the search(es).


Sandy



-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Charles Cain
Sent: 27 June 2011 16:04
To:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] O'Cathain, off modal matches, 448=16

Sandy

Regarding near vs far on the time scale, it seems that, if one
mutation is rare, the time to develop a panel of them must be
extended. So a panel of rare STR values at stable sites could
actually mean a group sharing these values reaches back to the fairly
distant past.

As an analogy, a panel of just a few SNPs can take you back really far
in time (when they are not mutually exclusive).

A test of this hypothesis might be to look at GD values for this
(your) group vs any other group not sharing that panel, ie, look at
the more rapidly changing STR markers.The GDs outside the group should
trend larger than the expected values. This may also hold within the
group, i.e., at STR sites outside the rare ones, the group may have
diverged because the group (defined by the rare markers) reaches
fairly far back in time.

Bill Howard's approach of comparing groups might help in proving or
disproving this hypothesis.

Charles


Quoting Sandy Paterson <>:

> Two Points here. Firstly, Ken Nordtvedt's paper at
>
> http://www.jogg.info/42/files/Nordtvedt.htm
>
>
> is relevant. Essentially, he explains that matches that appear to be
close,
> are actually about twice as distant as traditional TMRCA estimation
suggests
> they are. Further, traditional methods of estimation exaggerate the TMRCA
> for more distant matches. I couldn't find what he means by traditional
> methods, but I did manage to follow most of his reasoning.
>
> So we may be seeing a little of that here.
>
> Secondly, (as you know), rare matches are more important than common
matches
> (as you've pointed out with DYS448). So the more off-modal (rare) matches
> you have with someone, the lower the expected TMRCA for a given GD.
>
> In our case, we have six off-modal matches, at
>
> DYS439=13
> DYS570=18
> DYS710=34
> DYS715=23
> DYS513=14
> DYS643=11
>
> In addition, we have what I've come to term a 'directional match', in that
> we are both 14+ at DYS=446 (modal value 13). I am 15, you are 14.
>
> I think it's going to be interesting seeing whether the 23,14,11 at
> DYS715,513,643 is present in Cain and variants with DYS446=13. If not,
that
> will give us a useful clue as to kinship. If it is present, that knowledge
> should help in trying to work out the order in which the mutations most
> likely occurred.
>
>
> Sandy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
> [mailto:] On Behalf Of Charles Cain
> Sent: 26 June 2011 19:25
> To:
> Subject: [R-M222] O'Cathain, off modal matches, 448=16
>
> Looking at Sandy's chart, I am struck by how "unrelated" in GD terms
> we all are although that is a relative concept I suppose. Under each
> new name on the chart, the most closely related subject almost always
> jumps to a GD of over 10 with around 15 being the most common (too
> lazy to compute the average "jump"). The value of off-modal markers
> becomes obvious from this chart.
>
> In my own case, the jump in GD is only 4 to a Kane. We have compared
> notes because I noticed several years ago the we share an off-modal
> match at marker 448. In M222 this marker is uniformly 18 repeats.
> However, 4 "Cain/Kanes" have 448=16, extremely rare and not shared (to
> my knowledge) by anyone else.
>
> In contacting these people, one 25 marker Cain (GD=0), turned out to
> be related on paper back to a common ancestor just before 1800. If
> fact, the father of this common ancestor was at Valley Forge in the
> Revolutionary War, always an interesting fact to turn up. Also, his (
> Mr. Valley Forge's) father was the likely immigrant from Ireland to
> New Jersey in 1740. So DNA helps!
>
> Another 448=16 colleague (the other Kane/Cain with 111 marker results)
> is unlikely to be related before the 1740 date mentioned above. This
> is based on lack of common spelling of our last name, different family
> religious affiliations, and different arrival times of our immigrant
> ancestors. So we are related only before 1740.
>
> On one of the DNA tree charts (I think based on Bill Howard's
> computations), we reach a common branch at about RCC=9, or some 400
> years ago, or around 1600. This is entirely consistent with what is
> likely true from other considerations.
>
> Moreover, both of us (Cain and Kane) trace back to the next branching
> of the "RCC tree" at around RCC=22, or some 950 years. If Bill
> Howard's computations are sensitive to rarity of mutations at each
> site, that is a good guess for when the 448 =16 mutation (from 448=18)
> occurred. If true, I am related to no other O'Cathain with 448=18
> after the year AD 1000. That seems like a useful piece of data.
>
> In that regard, if you want to know who to contact regarding possible
> common ancestors, look at rare off-modal matches. I has worked for my
> 448=16 colleagues and myself.
>
> Bill Howard may want to comment on my use of his data in the above
> exercise...particularly my use of his data to "estimate" when the
> 448=16 mutation occurred.
>
> Charles
>
>
>
>
> R1b1c7 Research and Links:
>
> http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/
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>
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