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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2010-03 > 1270042676


From: David Ewing <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Niall of the Nine Hostages and McGee
Date: Wed, 31 Mar 2010 07:44:34 -0600


The short answer to David Grierson's question is that if you want 95%
probability for TMRCA, you will have to put up with enormous confidence
intervals. How helpful is it to say we are 95% confident that the TMRCA is
1500 years, give or take a thousand years? We would like to have specific
answers to some questions that are simply not within the capability of this
technology.

A good place to start on the looooooong answer is to read the 150-odd pages
of the special section of the Fall 2009 issue of the Journal of Genetic
Genealogy, which has articles by several different researchers with several
different perspectives on the problem. This is available as a free PDF at
http://www.jogg.info/52/index.html

David Ewing


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