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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2009-12 > 1260541341


From: Iain Kennedy <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Coyne and Golden project families
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:22:21 +0000
References: <mailman.25.1260432006.9391.dna-r1b1c7@rootsweb.com>,<002a01ca7a39$3e11a9f0$aa00a8c0@Sisko>,<000601ca7a65$27e4c4b0$77ae4e10$@com>
In-Reply-To: <000601ca7a65$27e4c4b0$77ae4e10$@com>


I found this Chandler post although not the maths that lies behind it:

http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/genealogy-dna/2009-04/1239749351

quote:

If you match

someone 65/67 and differ by only one step on each of the discrepant

markers, the 95% confidence interval for TMRCA extends back 17

generations under "normal" circumstances. If one of the mismatches is

by two steps instead of one step, you need to add an extra generation

to the count. If you happen to be within a step or two of the modal

haplotype for your subclade, however, the time is doubled. Even if

the match is exact, 67/67, the 95% CI goes back 8 generations, and so

finding and confirming the relationship may be difficult. Of course,

if you have exactly the modal haplotype of your subclade, this time,

too, must be doubled.

end quote



Iain





> From:
> To:
> Date: Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:23:40 +0000
> Subject: Re: [R-M222] Coyne and Golden project families
>
> I am well aware of the fact that the subject of DNA genetics is still in its
> infancy. I am also well aware that some people on the list are new to the
> subject and are on the list in the hope that they may learn a little and
> find things of interest.
>
<snip><snip>

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