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From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates
Date: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 07:45:27 +0100
References: <d19.3d757d9f.371fe16f@aol.com><000001c9c314$34d8b770$9e8a2650$@com>
In-Reply-To: <000001c9c314$34d8b770$9e8a2650$@com>


My goodness


'not being of zero significance' is almost as bad as coming to inconclusive
conclusions. It should of course have read 'being of zero significance'

Sandy




-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Sandy Paterson
Sent: 22 April 2009 07:33
To:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates

Hi John


391 = 10 (2 Cowan 9 Ewing)2 X 918
439 = 11 (2 Cowan 1 Ewing) fast2 X 12
19 = 15 (1 Cowan, 20 Ewing)1 X 2020
YCAIIb = 22 (2 Cowan, 2 Ewing)2 X 24
576 = 17 (1 Cowan, 2 Ewing) fast1 X 22
570 = 16 (1 Cowan, 1 Ewing) fast1 X 11
570 = 18 (2 Cowan, 1 Ewing) fast 2 X 12
CDYa = 35 (1 Cowan, 3 Ewing) fast1 X 33
CDYa = 36 (2 Cowan, 1 Ewing) fast2 X 12
CDYa = 37 (16 Cowan, 14 Ewing) fast16 X 14224
CDYb = 38 (1 Cowan, 17 Ewing) fast1 X 1717

Total
295

I'd say 295 is a bit more than a handful. Also, I have 22 Ewings and 25
Cowans. They have 708 off-modal matches. You have 20 Ewings and 35 Cowans so
you should find far more than the 708 off-modal matches that I found.

I'll go through my workings today and produce a table similar to the above
for comparison. At a quick glance though, I see you've left out DYS491 from
the above table although you do refer to it below, where you say

>
As far as I'm concerned the possibly significant shared off modal marker
in these two families is 449 = 31. That's a fast moving marker and I don't

know if it's significant or not beyond individual families. Other surnames

in the project match that off modal value as well. The only other marker
that comes close to being relevant in my opinion is CDYa = 37 and that's
only from sheer numbers. Most people don't even bother with the marker.
>

You say that other surnames match DYS449 = 31. Sure. Those matches are
included in my figures. The point is that Cowans have far more such matches
with Ewings than the other family groupings. I don't think you can dismiss
that as not being of zero significance.

Another way of looking at it is this : Suppose we were considering a much
older haplogroup than M222+. Even the slower moving markers would exhibit
greater dispersion than the faster moving markers exhibit in M222+. Do you
therefore exclude the slower moving markers too? Carry on with this
reasoning and you'll logically end up comparing nothing with nothing and
conclude that all conclusions are inconclusive.



Sandy




-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of
Sent: 22 April 2009 03:57
To:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates

In a message dated 4/21/2009 11:11:33 A.M. Central Daylight Time,
writes:
I don't think so. There are no fewer than 708 off-modal matches between
individual Cowans and individual Ewings. You manage to miss them through a
combination of discarding certain markers and using family modals instead
of
individual haplotypes. My problem is that I don't know what this means in
terms of how closely or distantly related they are and I am at this stage
unable to express a reasoned opinion as to when they may have branched off
from each other.


That's odd. I see only a handful of off modal matches between Cowans and
Ewings in the M222 Project.

Cowan (34 samples)
Ewing (20 samples)

391 = 10 (2 Cowan 9 Ewing)
439 = 11 (2 Cowan 1 Ewing) fast
19 = 15 (1 Cowan, 20 Ewing)
YCAIIb = 22 (2 Cowan, 2 Ewing)
576 = 17 (1 Cowan, 2 Ewing) fast
570 = 16 (1 Cowan, 1 Ewing) fast
570 = 18 (2 Cowan, 1 Ewing) fast
CDYa = 35 (1 Cowan, 3 Ewing) fast
CDYa = 36 (2 Cowan, 1 Ewing) fast
CDYa = 37 (16 Cowan, 14 Ewing) fast
CDYb = 38 (1 Cowan, 17 Ewing) fast

Except for matches at 391, 19 and YCAIIb these are all fast markers where
one would expect some diversity from the modal. Most are probably nothing
more than parallel mutations. I see nothing significant in any of these
totals.

As far as I'm concerned the possibly significant shared off modal marker
in these two families is 449 = 31. That's a fast moving marker and I don't

know if it's significant or not beyond individual families. Other surnames

in the project match that off modal value as well. The only other marker
that comes close to being relevant in my opinion is CDYa = 37 and that's
only from sheer numbers. Most people don't even bother with the marker.

To take just one example, the fact that one Cowan out of 34 has DYS 19 =
15 strikes me as statistically irrelevant and probably nothing but a
parallel mutation when compared to Ewings who are all 15 at that marker.
Any
marker, even slow moving markers, can mutate at any time, including off
modal
markers.

There are others in the project with 19 = 15.

Queen
Clark
Wight Le Rossignol
Graham
McGill
McGonigal
Fergusson
McGonagill
McGonagill
McGonigal
Megonnigil
McGonagill
Megonnigil Jr.
Megonnigil
Duffy
Savage
Paiz
Cullen
McLaughlin
Kennedy

Now if you could find a strong pattern of off modal matches between a lot
of M222 surnames I think you might have something. But no one, including
David Wilson, has managed to spot anything yet.

Now what have I managed to do?

Off modal results

Cowan (34

393 = 14 (3)
391 = 10 (2)
385a = 12 (4)
439 = 11 (2)
392 = 13 (2)
19 = 15 (1)
458 = 18 (1)
437 = 16 (1)
449 = 29 (3)
339 = 31 (3)
449 = 31 (22)
465b = 15 (1)
464d = 16 (4)
460 = 12 (4)
YCAIIb = 22 (2)
456 = 16 (1)
607 = 15 (17)
607 = 14 (1)
576 = 17 (1)
570 = 16 (1)
570 = 18 (2)
CDYa = 35 (1)
CDYa = 36 (2)
CDYa = 37 (16)
CDYb = 38 (1)
CDYb = 40 (12)
CDYb = 41 (5)

Ewiing (20)

390 = 26 (1)
19 = 15 (21)
391 = 10 (9)
439 = 11 (1)
439 = 13 (16)
447 = 24 (1)
437 = 14 (1)
448 =19 (1)
449 = 31 (20)
464d = 18 (2)
460 = 9 (1)
GATAH4 = 12 (1)
YCAIIb = 22 (2)
456 = 17 (2)
456 = 18 (18)
576 = 17 (2)
576 = 19 (2)
570 = 16 (1)
570 = 18 (1)
442 = 11 (20)
CDYa = 35 (3)
CDYa = 36 (1)
CDYa = 37 (14)
CDYb = 37 (3)
CDYb = 38 (17)



Common to both

391 = 10 (2 Cowan 9 Ewing)
439 = 11 (2 Cowan 1 Ewing)
19 = 15 (1 Cowan, 21 Ewing)
YCAIIb = 22 (2 Cowan, 2 Ewing)
576 = 17 (1 Cowan, 2 Ewing)
570 = 16 (1 Cowan, 1 Ewing)
570 = 18 (2 Cowan, 1 Ewing)
CDYa = 35 (1 Cowan, 3 Ewing)
CDYa = 36 (2 Cowan, 1 Ewing)
CDYa = 37 (16 Cowan, 14 Ewing)
CDYb = 38 (1 Cowan, 17 Ewing)

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