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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2009-04 > 1240313406


From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates
Date: Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:30:06 +0100
References: <d60.49212935.371df61b@aol.com>
In-Reply-To: <d60.49212935.371df61b@aol.com>


Hi John, David

Let me summarise as follows : As at some time during the middle of last
week, there were 427 M222+ participants with at least 37 markers. That gives
us a total of 427 x 37 = 15799 markers to work with. We're attempting to
divide M222+ into sub-clades of sorts.

The 427 haplotypes are analysed as follows

On modal markers13493
Off Modal markers 2306
Total15799

Since on modal markers can't help us with a subdivision, we actually have
only 2306 pieces of information to work with. Of these 2306, by discarding
markers with mutation rates thought to exceed .004, we effectively throw
away 1512 pieces of information, or about 65% of the data. It gets worse. By
then comparing surname modals with the M222+ modal (instead of considering
each haplotype individually), the data used in pursuit of finding logical
subdivisions is reduced even further. Ewing in particular is affected by
this, with a goodly number of DYS391 = 10 being ignored (a goodly number,
but not enough to produce a surname modal value of 10 for DYS391 though).

Not good lads. Not good at all. Although it may make sense to discard some
markers for older haplogroups with a large number of haplotypes, it makes
little sense to do so in the case of a young haplogroup such as M222+,
except perhaps for CDYab and even that's debateable.


Sandy




-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of
Sent: 20 April 2009 17:00
To:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates

In a message dated 4/20/2009 2:42:36 A.M. Central Daylight Time,
writes:

I don't think we should just ignore the faster moving markers. For example,
Ewing 65018 has no fewer than 5 off-modal matches with Henry 105286 :

Perhaps not. Everything's relative. 385ab is supposed to be a fast
moving marker but 92% of M222 has the tell tale 13 at 385b. The next
highest
value is 12 at 5.4%.

Like David, I too compared the M222 family modals identified so far. The
closest match to the Ewings in terms of genetic distance were the Cowans.
The Cowan modal compared to the Ewing modal was a GD of 7, followed by the
McLaughlin modal at 8; McGonagle, 9; Doherty, 10; Dunbar, 12; Howle, 13.

But I'm not sure how much any of this means. As far as I can see the Cowans
and Ewings only share two off modal markers, 449 = 31 and CDYa = 37. Like
David, I seldom pay any attention to CDY values. They vary so much a
modal value is almost meaningless. 449 is one of the fairly common
mismatch
markers to the M222 modal. 18.7% of the project also have 449 = 31; 10.9%

have 449 = 29.

Most of the Cowans in the project list an origin in Ireland. Two say
Scotland. That doesn't mean much since they could be Scots-Irish. I
checked
the Cowan surname in the Griffith's Valuations. There are tons of Cowans
(that exact spelling) listed all over the place in Ireland. Lots in the
Ulster counties but generally scattered everywhere, including some in
Leinster and Galway. Even Roscommon has a few.

The McGonagles in the project all list an origin in Ireland. None of them
list an exact county but the surname is very common in Donegal. There are
a few listed in Antrim in the Griffith's but the overwhelming majority are
from Donegal, Tyrone or L'Derry. As to origins there is no pedigree or
mention of them in historical sources. More than likely they are Cenel
Conaill like the Dohertys and O'Donnells but that's just a guess.

The Howles all list an origin in England. I ran this name through the
surname profiler. Almost unheard of anywhere but in the west midlands
(that's
how it's described on the site).

For what it's worth this is what an internet source says about the
surname.


Surname: Howle
The primary source of this ancient and distinguished surname is the Old
Welsh male given name "Hywel" meaning "Eminent, Prominent". This name was
borne by Huwal West Wala Cyning (King of the West Welsh), recorded in the
Anglo-Saxon Chronicles of Devonshire, dated 926, and by Hywel Dda, Hywel
the
Goat, Prince of all Wales and collector of the Welsh laws circa 950. In
1184,
one Hoelus de Charlion was noted in the ipe Rolls of Glamorgan, and a
Howell filius (son of) Ade Walensis appears in the 1221 Shropshire Assizes.

Early examples of the surname include: William Hoel (Wiltshire, 1183); John

Howel (Cambridgeshire, 1313); and Hyllar Howell (Somerset, 1327). The
second
possible source of the surname is English, and locational from a parish in
South Lincolnshire called Howell. Recorded as "Huuelle" in the Domesday
Book of 1086, and as "Huwell(e)" in the 1190 Pipe Rolls of that county, the

place was so called from the Olde English pre 7th Century personal byname
"Huna", from "hun", bear cub, with "well(a)", spring, stream. Early
examples
of the surname from this source include: Walter de Huwella and Alfredus de
Howella (Lincolnshire, 1165 and 1177 respectively). Other examples are
Walter de Huwella of Lincoln in 1165, Willaim Hoel of Norfolk in 1221, and
John
Howle of Cambridge in 1327. Thomas Howell, was chaplain to Charles 1, in
1640. The first recorded spelling of the family name is shown to be that of

Geffrei Hoel, which was dated circa 1100, in the "Old English Byname
Register", Devonshire, during the reign of King Henry 1, known as "The Lion
of
Justice", 1100 - 1135.

To me it makes sense that they might be the most distant of the family
modals from the Ewings since they probably lived in western England far to
the south.

If I compare the Howle modal to the others the closest in order are:
Doherty, Cowan and McGonagle (tie), McLaughlin and Dunbar (tie) and lastly,

Ewing. This combination of names doesn't make any sense to me.

I think you are seeing a connection between Cowans and Ewings because you
assume both surnames were derived from a common ancestor named Eoghan. If
you read through the material on the Clan Ewing web site though I think
you'll see this a doubtful proposition. In the Surname Profiler the name
Cowan is common all over Scotland except in the north. Heaviest in
Galloway
and Dumfriesshire. Perhaps Ayrshire as well. I'm not to good at picking
out
Scottish counties from their map.


John






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