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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2009-04 > 1240239274


From: David Ewing <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates
Date: Mon, 20 Apr 2009 08:54:34 -0600


Welp, I took the seven surname modals from John's website at
http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/M222modals.htm,
put them into the McGee utility and "un-enabled" the fourteen markers that
have mutation rates >0.004 according to Chandler's estimates. This leaves 23
markers with rates <0.004, which have an average mutation rate of 0.00148.
You can see the resulting table at
http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/431003/M222FamilyModals.pdf

The only off-modal match on the 23-marker panel is Ewing and McGonagle at
DYS19 = 15. Dunbar and Cowan each match the R:M222 modal at all 23 of these
markers. Mclaughlin, Doherty and McGonagle have one marker each that does
not match the modal; Ewing has two and Howle has three. This doesn't allow
me to conclude anything particularly interesting, except weakly perhaps that
McGonagle and Ewing diverged from the modal before Ewing diverged from
McGonagle.

Looking again at the full 37-marker panel, I see only that Doherty and
Dunbar have two off-modal matches at DYS458 = 18 and DYS460 = 12; and,
Mclaughlin and Dunbar have two off-modal matches at DYS458 = 18 and DYS576 =
17. To my way of thinking, it is much less likely to end up with two or more
off-modal matches because of parallel mutation. Doherty, McGonagle and Howle
also have two off-modal matches at DYS460 = 12 and CDYa = 38, but I think
that at the sort of time depth we are considering here, CDY matches are only
going to result in confusion and we would be well-served to ignore these.

This has been is a pretty long-winded way to say I really don't have
anything to contribute, but there you have it.

David

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