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From:
Subject: Re: [R-M222] TMRCA Estimate--Byrne NW Cluster
Date: Fri, 17 Apr 2009 23:42:45 EDT
In a message dated 4/15/2009 7:35:33 A.M. Central Daylight Time,
writes:
An interesting exercise. I ran 27 M222 37-marker haplotypes from my
Byrne/Burns/Beirne project, and it appears that we are much younger that the
overall M222 group's average.
Abbreviated, my results were:
KN's method and J Chandler's mutation rates 25.4 gens 762 years
Minus CDY and 464 31.6 949
Minus 464 only 26.1 784
Minus CDY 29.4 881
Minus 385, 459, 464, YCA II, CDY 29.2 881
Paul, I ran my group of related McLaughlins through the variance
calculator. I too got quite a spread depending on the method used. But it ranged
from 1181 AD. to 1382 AD. That's not too far out of the ballpark if we take
possible dates of 1050 to 1200 for the common ancestor of the first
MacLochlainn of Donegal.
I took a random group of Dohertys and threw them into the mix. This time
the dates ranged from 671 AD. to 1164 AD. The later date is obviously way
off but the 671 date might not be too far off an assume date of 430 AD. or
so for sons of Nial. The early date came from this method:
Age in years for 37 markers using James Heald's method and Chandler's
mutation rates after removing CDYa, CDYb, and DYS 464:
Then I threw some Ewings from the project into the calculator. Range: 613
AD. to 962 AD.
That's slightly lower than the range I got with just McLaughlins and
Dohertys but not by much.
I didn't keep track of what results I got with the entire M222 project but
most of the dates hovered in the 400-500 AD. range. Which is basically
what David Wilson reported some months ago using the same spreadsheet.
John
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