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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2009-04 > 1239892973


From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates
Date: Thu, 16 Apr 2009 15:42:53 +0100
References: <1755835244.2643671239874776023.JavaMail.root@sz0128a.westchester.pa.mail.comcast.net><1336551695.2643721239874808940.JavaMail.root@sz0128a.westchester.pa.mail.comcast.net>
In-Reply-To: <1336551695.2643721239874808940.JavaMail.root@sz0128a.westchester.pa.mail.comcast.net>


Hi Paul

>
I believe the Byrne NW modal was too close to the NW Irish Modal to be
distinguishable, though I suppose that should tell me something.
>

Your observation got me thinking once again about the significance of
off-modal matches compared to on-modal matches. I recently got the idea that
one way of approaching the problem of sub-dividing M222+ was to

1. Identify a surname that has a definite and distinctive DNA. Ewing is
about the most distinctive in M222+ so that's what I used.
2. For each M222+ participant, determine the number of off-modal matches
with Ewings.
3. We then have to address the fact that the more modal misses you have, the
greater the chances of having off-modal matches with Ewings. So adjust the
number obtained in 2 above by dividing by the number of modal misses.

An example :

Over 37 markers, Ashley (kit number 16212) has 4 off-modal matches with
Ewings and he has 8 modal misses. So his number of 4 is divided by 8 to
become 0.5

Having done that, I then calculated averages for the larger name groupings.
Here are the results :

Cowan6.272
McGonagill6.187
McLaughlin4.299
Dunbar3.156
Daugherty2.970
McCord2.419
Burns1.914

So Cowan seems to be closest to the Ewings. A google search for 'cowan
surname origins' leads to the explanation that Cowan 'is an Anglicized form
of the old Gaelic MacEoghain or MacEoin' so perhaps we shouldn't be too
surprised at Cowans coming out as the closest match to Ewings.

Sandy


-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of
Sent: 16 April 2009 10:40
To:
Subject: [R-M222] Byrne TMRCA Estimates

"Isn't that about what we'd expect from a related group with a common
ancestor who arose as a distinct sept at about the time of surnames?"

John,
One of my project members asked why th4e Byrne M222 did not trace back to
Niall's time. I told him that it undoubtedly did, but as part of another
group name--some Roscommon, Sligo, or Donegal clan probably. Then the
Byrne/Burns/Beirne group split (not sure if it was all together at one time)
from the mainstream group, or from a clan that did not necessarily dissolve
at that time, between 1036 and 1387 AD.
But I see what you mean. Perhaps all M222 of a single surname would
appear to have diverged from the main pool within that time frame. If so,
wouldn't a phylo chart based on the modal for each group show which surnames
were grouped into "tribal" subdivisions post-Niall but before this split?
Didn't we experiment with this at one time and found that the Reillys,
McGoverns, and Fergusons were on the same branch, while the Dohertys and
Gallaghers were close on another? I believe the Byrne NW modal was too close
to the NW Irish Modal to be distinguishable, though I suppose that should
tell me something.
Maybe I am going in circles here.
Paul
R1b1c7 Research and Links:

http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/
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