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From:
Subject: [R-M222] TMRCA Estimaes (ASD)
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 2009 23:19:30 EDT


I ran the 37 marker M222 samples from the project through Tim Janzen's
Variance Calculator spreadsheet which uses the latest ASD methods (Average
Squared Distance) favored on the GEN-DNA list. If anyone is interested in
trying this you can find his calculator and an explanation at this site:

_http://www.timjanzen.com/dna.html_ (http://www.timjanzen.com/dna.html)

David Wilson did the same thing some time ago and arrived at a TMRCA
estimate for the M222 project at 400 AD. He later retracted this to some extent
by introducing a "fudge factor" which dropped the date to about O AD. plus
or minus a few centuries.

This is of extreme interest to me because the earliest solid date we have
for any M222 is ca. 400 AD, based on the alleged death date of Nial 'of the
Nine Hostages.' At this point it seems indisputable that his DNA is to be
found in what later became the northern Ui Neill in Ireland (see the .pdf
file "A Y-Chromosome Signature of Hegemony in Gaelic Ireland (Trinity
College)" on the M222 site.) I have found nothing in the time since this article
was published that does not agree with the basic thesis of this article.
If anyone hasn't read this seminal article on M222 you can find it here:

_http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/gael.pdf_
(http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/gael.pdf)

After I eliminated all 12 and 25 marker tests 421 thirty-seven marker of
better tests remained. I used only 37 markers to get as broad a selection
as possible.

The TMRCA estimates ranged from a low of 1084 years (925 AD) to a high of
1691 years (318 AD). Most of the estimates came in at the range of 423 AD.
to 492 AD, depending on which method was used. Tim programmed the
spreadsheet to use a variety of different methods, all based on ASD. In some a
few fast moving markers were removed from consideration. In others all
multi-part markers were removed. The results were as follows:

Age in years for 37 markers using Ken Nordtvedt's method
and Chandler's mutation rates based on 30 years per generation:
1084 (925 AD)

Age in years for 37 markers using James Heald's method and
Chandler's mutation rates:
1517 (492 AD)

Age in years for 37 markers using Ken Nordtvedt's method and Chandler's
mutation rates based
on 30 years per generation after removing DYS 385, DYS 459, DYS 464, YCA
II, and CDY:
also
Corrected Age in years for 37 markers:
1475 (534 AD)

1586 (423 AD)

Age in years for 37 markers using James Heald's method and
Chandler's mutation rates after removing CDYa, CDYb, and DYS 464:
1691 (318 AD)

I should remark that no one knows for sure when Nial was born or died.
Traditional Irish history assigns him a death date of 405 A.D. But some hist
orians believe he lived a generation or so later and really died ca. 450
AD. No one is really sure whether Nial was an historical figure or just some
kind of imagined common ancestor. What they do know is his alleged sons
begin popping up in the Irish annals in the early to mid 400 AD. and from
then on are fairly traceable in the annals as historical figures. In the
case of the northern Ui Neill these men are traceable in an almost unbroken
line in traditional Irish pedigrees through the era of the formation of Irish
surnames (1000 to 1200 AD).

If Irish history is any guide not all M222 in Ireland are literally
descendants of Nial. Nial himself came from a tribe called the Dal Cuinn or
Connachta, based on an earlier alleged ancestor named Conn 'of the Hundred
Battles." As in the case of Nial himself, no one really knows if Conn was an
historical figure. O'Rahilly believed he was the ancestral deity of the
Dal Cuinn in Ireland. The Connachta in Ireland (who are not Ui Neill or
desceneants of Nial) also are heavily M222, the same as the Ui Neill. By
legend they descend from half-brothers of Nial from a different mother. No one
knows if this tale is true or not. O'Rahilly believes it's just a myth.
What seems beyond question is the Connachta in Ireland are indeed related
somehow to the later offshoot of the Dal Cuinn, the Ui Neill. That would
imply that M222 existed prior to Nial's time. How far beyond Nial's time
cannot be said. No one knows if any of the names in the pedigrees prior to
Nial are genuine or not. O'Rahilly accepts his father, Eochaidh Mughmedoin,
as a genuine historical figure. He also accepts an earlier ancestor,
Tuathal Teachtmar, as historical, but rejects most of the intervening names in
the pedigree.

Most of these TMRCA estimates giving dates either current with Nial's
lifetime or after his probable death in the mid 5th century appear too late to
me. Since we don't really know when the Connachta and Ui Neill split apart
in Ireland it's difficult to arrive at any firm date for the earliest M222
in Ireland based on history.

If these TMRCA dates are anywhere near correct I would have to assume M222
originated in Ireland at about the time of Nial and from there spread to
England, Scotland, and beyond on the continent. Yet somehow I have a
nagging suspicion the DNA is older than that.

John McEwan, also using the ASD method, a few years ago came up with a much
more distant origin for M222.

_http://www.geocities.com/mcewanjc/p3asd.htm_
(http://www.geocities.com/mcewanjc/p3asd.htm)

R1bSTR19 aka North West Irish, or IMH

"Perhaps the more surprising is the estimates fro the “well established”
R1b STR clusters, R1bSTR19, R1bSTR22 and R1bSTR47. The Irish cluster has a
particularly recent TMRCA of 3362 (SEM=609) yrs bp, and its best estimate is
rather more recent than both the Scots and Irish clusters. The cluster
itself is quite distinct from R1b, so this could infer that this group must
have rapidly expanded from a small group around that time. Based on its
current geographical distribution it is thought that this group represents the
original hunter/gatherer population that inhabited Ireland after the LGM
(~9000 yrs bp). The expansion may have been due to the rapid growth in
population after the introduction of agriculture (~6500 yrs bp), or after metal
working began ~4500 yrs bp when Beaker-ware also made its appearance. This
cultural marker was most probably associated with the introduction of, horses
and the Celtic language as well. More recent cultural events may also have
contributed. "

But I think his R1bSTR19 cluster contained samples that are not M222 or NW
Irish, as it was referred to at the time. In other places he refers to
M222 as a sub-set of R1bSTR19. Later, specifically talking about M222, he
says "The cluster is about 46% of the age of R1b and is most likely at least
3400 years old based on extremely conservative assumptions. Much more has
been written and speculated about this SNP on the Genealogy DNA listserver."

That would place the TMRCA of M222 at about 1390 BC.


The M222 project is over weighted to some extent by certain surnames.
Lots of Dohertys, McLaughlins, Cowans, Ewings, McCords, Duncans, Byrnes/Burns
and a few others. I made no attempt to eliminate multiple surnames because
I wasn't sure which samples to pick. Also not all McLaughlins are the
same even if they are M222.



John





















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