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From:
Subject: Re: [DNA-R1B1C7] R1b1c7 in Ireland vs. Scotland
Date: Wed, 8 Oct 2008 18:00:28 EDT


In a message dated 10/8/2008 4:51:43 A.M. Central Daylight Time,
writes:

John,
I gather that theTrinity figures of 16.9% for R1b1c7 in Northwest Ireland
and 21.5% for a GD=1were based on their 17 (or was it 19) marker test, while
Capelli's figures of 7.3% in western and central Scotland, or 16.7% at GD=1,
were based on only six markers? Seems to me that a six-marker test is highly
uunreliable.
I thought the claims that R1b1c7 is prevalent in Scotland were based on
better statistics. But even the Capelli figures, because of the much wider spread
between the two figures for Scotland, seem to confirm a Northwest Irish
origin for R1b1c7. Am I reading this correctly?



The Capelli data as I recall mostly depends on two markers, DYS 390 = 25 and
DYS 392 = 14. So that can be misleading - there are R1b with those markers
who are not R1b1c7.

I don't know that it is possible to confirm an origin in Ireland for R1b1c7
even given the fact that it's most prominent there. The phrase
"spectacularly successful" is often used to describe a haplotype that flourishes
especially well in one location. Does that mean it originated there? David Wilson
might have some opinions on this. In his last post David mentioned it was
prominent in both Ireland and Scotland without assuming it originated in either
place.

The latest dates for the TMRCA for R1b1c7 don't go back past 0 -500 AD. And
Nial in Ireland comes in at the later edge of this range. We know from the
Irish pedigrees not all Irish R1b1c7 is descended from Nial (the Connachta
clans of the west aren't). We don't know the true first ancestor of the tribes
in Ireland. If you believe O'Rahilly it's Tuathal Teachtmar, portrayed as
the invasion leader of the Connachta, or whatever they were called in his day.
O'Rahilly doesn't accept the pedigree of Nial as historical. He regards
all of the names earlier than Nial's father, Eochaidh Mugmedhoin, as
unreliable. Conn 'of the Hundred Battles' is an ancestral god and not an historical
figure. But O'Rahilly does think Tuathal Teachtmar may have been an historical
ancestor. Beyond that we know nothing because the pedigrees are gibberish.

Let's say Tuathal Teachtmar was R1b1c7 and the first to arrive in Ireland.
You can't really base his age on the pedigrees since they're unreliable -
but Irish sources suggest he lived sometime in the 200's AD. Where did he
come to Ireland from? In Irish mythology Tuathal is portrayed as a returning
"exile" from Ireland. The story goes he escaped from Ireland as a child with
his mother (a Scot) and lived there until a young man before he returned to
reclaim his inheritance. The whole story is fairly nonsensical. Supposedly
there was an uprising of the plebian tribes of Ireland (ie, non Milesian) and
all the "royal" Milesians were slain except for the child Tuathal. That
banishment and return from exile is a common theme in Irish mythology. It may
mean nothing.

David mentioned in his last post that the original M222+ might have lived
on the continent. He would not be reflected in TMRCA calculations because
what we're measuring in Ireland and Scotland could be a more recent common
ancestor. That would seem to be the bottleneck effect often theorized in DNA
discussions. I guess this is a long-winded and meandering way to try and say I
think it's possible the MRCA of R1b1c7 "might" just as easily have lived in
Scotland as in Ireland.

Why the difference in population sizes? In Ireland the Connachta and Ui
Neill conquered and won territories and held them for centuries, in most
cases, from 400 AD. to the late 1500s. In Scotland (and especially the lowlands)
there were succeeding waves of conquerors (Anglos, Saxons, Vikings, Normans).
Early on the culture changed from tribal to feudal. There was no
opportunity for a strictly tribal entity to establish itself and flourish unchecked
for centuries.

I don't know what the truth is. But I don't think we have this R1b1c7 thing
figured out yet.


John









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