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Archiver > DNA-R1B1C7 > 2008-02 > 1203501675


From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA-R1B1C7] Age of R1B1C7
Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2008 10:01:15 -0000


Hi David (Wilson)

Using a "back-of-a-cigarette-box" type calculation considering only the
proportion of modals remaining, I get 1376 years using the 12 marker table
you posted, and 1478 years using the 25 marker table, with an assumed
mutation rate of .002 per generation per marker, and 30 year generations.

With only one modal left in the 37 marker table, it is clear that the
approximation would be pretty poor so I've ignored that. My impression
though just eye-scanning the table is that more accurate approximations
applied to the 37 marker data will suggest a much lower age for R1b1c7
than the other two samples.

Turning to the R1b sample of 1300 odd, I get about 3900 years as the
approximate age of R1b.

The calculation involves solving for 'n' in

(1-mutation rate)^n = observed proportion modals remaining.

I'm pretty new to DNA studies and have absolutely no idea of how old the
various haplogroups and subgroups are thought to be.


Sandy Paterson



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