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From:
Subject: Re: [DNA-R1B1C7] Age of R1b1c7
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 15:22:36 EST
In a message dated 2/18/2008 9:17:10 A.M. Central Standard Time,
writes:
David,
You could give Wimpy's ASD-calculator a spin. It computes age based on
variance from a set of haplotypes that copy and paste into an Excel
worksheet. See:
http://users.telenet.be/callmewimpy/dnatools.htm
I tried that one myself with a 113 sample set of 37 marker R1b1c7 composed
of a broad range of surnames, from Irish to Scottish and in between (who knows
what half of them are). All the surnames were unique. No duplications.
980 years 25 years/generation
1176 years 30 years/generation
This doesn't seem possible to me. 1176 years = 831 A.D.
But I just read this in David Wilson's last message:
"The fact that one-third of all R1b1c7 haplotypes are modal when compared at
the 12-marker level speaks to the youth of this group."
Trinity college gave two estimates, one for their sample of known Ui Neill
surnames (1730 years ago = 277 A.D.) and a second for the general IMH
population of NW Ireland (1010 years ago = 997 A.D.).
"The time to the most-recent common
ancestor (TMRCA) of this lineage was estimated
with the r statistic (Morral et al. 1994) in NETWORK,
with use of a mutation rate of 1 per 2,131 years for a
17-marker haplotype (Zhivotovsky et al. 2004). At 1,730
(SD 670) years ago, it is at least consistent with an early medieval
time frame. A similar TMRCA analysis of the
IMH lineage in the general northwestern population
sample (shown in fig. 1B) is also roughly consistent with
this time frame (1,010 years ago [SD 390)."
They didn't take into account any of the Scottish or English R1b1c7 but
judging from GDs from the modal this population as a whole isn't any older than
the Irish contingent.
None of these estimates seem to push the TMRCA into the distant past.
John
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