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From:
Subject: Re: [DNA-R1B1C7] Age of R1b1c7
Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 03:05:37 EST



In a message dated 2/16/2008 11:31:58 P.M. Central Standard Time,
writes:

16.5% will have five, 16% will have six, 13.3% will have seven, 9.7% will
have eight, 6.3% will have nine, 3.7% will have ten, 1.9% will have eleven,
less than one percent will have twelve, etc, etc. So "on average" his
descendants will be genetic distance six or seven from the modal, and those
of his 50th great-grandsons for whom he is the most recent common ancestor
should be at an average genetic distance of fifteen or so from one another
(because two such great-grandsons would be separated by 104 transmission
events). Remember, I am leaving CDYa/b out of consideration, here.



I wonder if there's another way of looking at that?

Some time ago I took 14 of our McLaughlin samples and 14 Ewing samples (all
25 marker tests). The McLaughlins are supposed to be descended from Nial's
son Eoghan or Owen. I ran the samples through the McGee utility.

The McLaughlin group is mostly a GD of 5 against the R1b1c7 modal (50%).
Or perhaps a range of 5-6 would be average.

The Ewing group is mostly a GD of 7 against the R1b1c7 modal. Or perhaps a
range of 7-8. In terms of GDs against each other, 9-12 covers most of the
ground with 11 the highest.

I wonder if you could work backwards using the method you mentioned and
extrapolate possible dates for common ancestors? I could re-do the sample
using the exact same number of markers you're using with Anne's calculator.

I like using the Ewings as a control group because they're R1b1c7 from
Scotland with no known origin. On the other hand both Mclaughlins and Dohertys
have a putative origin from Nial. And there are a lot of excellent samples
for all three groups. There are other surname projects that could be used.
Paul Burnes has a lot of R1b1c7 Byrnes. And I think there are a fair amount
of McGovern (10) samples on Ysearch. These are both supposed to be Connachta
(not descended from Nial). For other Ui Neill septs there are at least a few
samples (Slavins, Gallagher, O'Boyle, Donnelly).

Or you could try and put together a sample using Trinity's list of surnames
and take a few from each:

(O')Gallagher (12), (O')Boyle (9), (O')Doherty (5), O'Donnell (4), O'Connor
(3), Cannon (3), Bradley (2), O'Reilly (2), Flynn (2), (Mc)Kee (2), Campbell
(1), Devlin (1), Donnelly (1), Egan (1), Gormley (1), Hynes (1), McCaul
(1), McGovern (1), McLoughlin (1), McManus (1), McMenamin (1), Molloy (1),
O'Kane (1), O'Rourke (1), and Quinn (1).

GD's against the R1b1c7 modal (McLaughlin)

McL 3 (1)
McL 5 (7)
McL 6 (3)
McL 7 (2)
McL 8 (1)

Ewing

EW 6 (3)
EW 7 (6)
EW 8 (3)
EW 9 (1)
EW 10 (1)

GDs McL vs. Ewing

8 (15)
9 (34)
10 (32)
11 (40)
12 (30)
13 (13)
14 (8)
9 (4)


John






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